Canada’s economic landscape shifted unexpectedly in October, defying predictions of a slowdown and delivering a surge in employment. The nation added a remarkable 67,000 jobs, a figure that sent ripples through the economic community and challenged prevailing forecasts.
This positive trend marks the second consecutive month of surprising job growth, pushing the national unemployment rate down to 6.9 per cent. Economists had widely anticipated a modest loss of 2,500 jobs, making October’s performance a significant and welcome deviation from expectations.
The gains were largely fueled by an increase in part-time positions, with 85,000 new roles created. This follows strong gains in full-time employment during September, indicating a broadening of opportunity across different work arrangements.
A notable resurgence occurred within the private sector, which added 73,000 jobs – its first increase since June. This signals a renewed confidence among businesses and a willingness to expand their workforce.
When combined with the gains seen in September, the recent employment figures have more than compensated for the declines experienced in July and August. This demonstrates a resilience within the Canadian economy and its ability to recover from earlier setbacks.
The wholesale and retail trade sector led the charge, adding an impressive 41,000 positions. Transportation and warehousing followed closely with 30,000 new jobs, while the information, culture, and recreation industries contributed 25,000 roles.
Even sectors sensitive to trade tariffs, like manufacturing, showed positive movement, gaining 8,700 positions. However, the construction industry experienced a setback, losing 15,000 jobs during the month.
A broader look at the year reveals a divergence between goods-producing and service industries. Goods-producing sectors have collectively shed 54,000 positions since January, coinciding with increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and global trade. Conversely, the service sector has flourished, adding 142,000 jobs over the same period.
Ontario experienced the most significant provincial growth, adding 55,000 jobs – its first increase since June. This is particularly encouraging for regions like Windsor, which had been heavily impacted by the trade war and seen its unemployment rate peak at 11.2 per cent in June, now down to 9.6 per cent.
Young workers, who have faced considerable challenges in the labour market, also saw a positive shift. The 15 to 24 age group gained 21,000 jobs, the first increase since January, bringing the youth unemployment rate down to 14.1 per cent.
This improvement for young workers is a welcome sign, especially after the youth jobless rate reached a 15-year high just last month. It suggests a potential easing of the difficulties faced by this demographic.
Adding to the positive economic indicators, average hourly wages increased by 3.5 per cent year-over-year, accelerating from 3.3 per cent the previous month. This suggests growing earnings for Canadian workers.
The Bank of Canada will be closely analyzing these labour market trends as it prepares for its December interest rate decision. November’s job figures will also be considered before a final determination is made.
Currently, the central bank’s benchmark interest rate stands at 2.25 per cent, following two consecutive cuts. Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated the bank may hold steady unless economic data significantly deviates from current forecasts.
