Eastern Romania recently hosted Steadfast Dart 2025, a large-scale NATO military exercise unfolding against a backdrop of escalating global tensions. British soldiers stood on the ground, unfurling the Union Jack – a stark visual reminder of a shifting geopolitical landscape.
The exercise wasn’t solely focused on traditional warfare. Experts emphasize that modern conflict is inextricably linked to the digital realm. Cyber operations are now considered essential, supporting and even preceding kinetic actions – the use of missiles and bullets. The war in Ukraine has tragically demonstrated this, bringing the realities of conflict directly to civilian populations.
But is a cyberattack truly equivalent to a physical strike? Some argue that launching a sophisticated cyber operation is far more complex, and potentially less impactful, than a more direct approach. Dropping a bomb, while devastating, may be simpler to execute than a nuanced, large-scale digital offensive.
The threat isn’t merely theoretical. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper recently warned of a surge in hybrid attacks across Europe – drone incursions, cyber assaults, all designed to destabilize nations and interfere with democracies. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre has already dealt with a record 204 “nationally significant” cyber attacks this year, more than double the previous year’s total.
Eighteen of those incidents were deemed “highly significant,” posing a serious threat to essential services. Intelligence officials identify both Russian and Chinese actors actively targeting UK infrastructure, both public and private. Recent attacks on major companies like M&S and Jaguar Land Rover highlight the vulnerability of the UK’s critical systems.
Hospitals, schools, and supermarkets are considered particularly vulnerable. The concern extends beyond technical defenses, delving into the realm of human behavior. Experts draw parallels to the panic buying seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, warning that supply chain disruptions caused by cyberattacks could trigger widespread social unrest.
This isn’t simply a technical problem; it’s a social one. Resilience, the ability to withstand and recover from attacks, is paramount. The UK is facing a growing sense of urgency, with warnings that conflict is looming and the “shadow of war” is falling across Europe.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allied nations to dramatically increase defense spending and production. He cautioned against complacency, stating that time is not on their side and action is needed now. Russia is seen as the primary threat, and many believe a lack of urgency could have catastrophic consequences.
The UK’s defense spending is on a rising trajectory, reaching £60.2 billion in the last fiscal year and projected to climb to £73.5 billion by 2028/29. The government has committed to meeting the NATO target of 2.5% of GDP by 2027, increasing to 3.5% by 2035. Currently, the UK ranks 12th among NATO countries in terms of defense spending as a percentage of GDP, with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia leading the way.
