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Earnings day is here for Tesla, and the stakes are high.
After a roller coaster ride for the stock in 2025, shares are now up 95% in six months, but even with such a massive gain, that only amounts to a rise of about 10% year-to-date.
Now, investors will get a sense of whether the rally that's taken hold in the latter half of the year can continue. They'll be laser-focused on updates on Tesla's robotaxi rollout, which many on Wall Street see as the justification for the EV maker's premium valuation.
There will also be questions about the outlook for vehicle sales after Tesla reported deliveries earlier this month that crushed estimates. However, with the federal EV tax credit now off the table, some have wondered if sales will wane in the coming quarters.
Tesla will publish its results shortly after the 4 p.m. ET closing bell, with the analyst call scheduled for 5:30.
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Tesla said in its second-quarter earnings release that the Semi and Cybercab production were both expected to reach volume production in 2026. With just a few months left of 2025, investors will want to know if the EV giant is still headed toward that timeline.
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Andres Sheppard of Cantor Fitzgerald wrote this week that the focus will be on the biggest catalysts for the stock price. Specifically, he cited "several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts, including: continued rollout of Robotaxi in Texas and California, ramp up of the Model 3/Y standard (lower-cost vehicle), FSD adoption in China and Europe, launch of the cybercab in 2026, and an update on the timeline for its humanoid Optimus Bot."
Cantor has a $355 price target for the stock, implying downside of about 20% from current levels.
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Analysts at RBC have a price target of $500 for Tesla stock, representing 12% upside from Wednesday's price. Their thesis hinges on a "sum-of-the-parts" methodology that values the company on revenues related to all of its business units, with its auto unit ranked lower than things like AI and robots.
The bank's Tom Narayan upped his Tesla price target after speaking with the company's management team about production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, which they say has a total addressable market worth $9 trillion.
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The outlook for car sales is important, but AI is the bigger update that investors should be looking for from this report, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives said this week.
"We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here," Ives said. "It starts with autonomous then robotics as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years that will start to get unlocked over the coming months."
Wedbush has a $600 price target for Tesla stock, representing 37% upside from Wednesday's price.
