Tonight, the Senate faces a pivotal test – a vote that could break the deadlock and swiftly end the current government shutdown. The stakes are incredibly high, and the outcome hangs precariously in the balance, potentially resolving the crisis within days.
Around 8 to 10 pm EST, senators will vote on whether to overcome a filibuster blocking the revised GOP spending plan. This isn’t just procedural; success would reopen the government, at least until January 30th, providing a crucial window for more comprehensive negotiations.
The current proposal fully funds the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and Military Construction, alongside Congressional operations. It’s a strategic move, designed to attract moderate support and force a resolution. But reaching the necessary 60 votes to break the filibuster requires a delicate calculation and potential bipartisan cooperation.
Eyes are now fixed on a handful of Democratic senators – Tim Kaine and Mark Warner of Virginia, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff of Georgia, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Angus King of Maine, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. Their votes could be the key to unlocking a path forward.
Even Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, a prominent Democrat, has signaled a willingness to consider reopening the government. However, the unpredictable vote of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky adds another layer of complexity. His previous opposition could significantly alter the equation.
It’s crucial to understand that a vote to break the filibuster doesn’t guarantee support for the final bill. But it would empower Republicans to pass the measure with a simple majority, eliminating the need for further Democratic votes.
If the 60-vote threshold is reached, a final vote could theoretically occur next weekend. However, a more likely scenario involves intense negotiations and a potential vote overnight tonight or early Monday, driven by a growing desire to escape the Capitol.
A deep rift is forming within the Democratic party. Some members, frustrated by the ongoing shutdown and its consequences, are leaning towards a compromise. Others are furious, believing their colleagues are conceding too much without securing guarantees on crucial issues like Affordable Care Act subsidies.
This internal conflict echoes past disagreements, particularly the frustration House Democrats felt when Senate Democrats helped avert a shutdown earlier this year. The current situation threatens to escalate that tension, potentially sparking a full-blown civil war within the party.
While Democrats may have temporarily lost ground on securing immediate funding for Obamacare, they’ve successfully elevated the issue to national prominence. This could force Republicans and the President to address healthcare affordability in the future, potentially securing a significant win ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Adding to the turmoil, some Democrats are questioning the leadership of Senator Chuck Schumer. Accusations of overcorrection and a perceived shift in strategy are fueling discontent and could have long-term implications for party leadership.
The mounting pressure of the shutdown itself has been a major catalyst for change. Aviation delays, furloughed air traffic controllers, unpaid federal workers, and disruptions to essential services like SNAP benefits have created a sense of urgency and a growing demand for resolution.
Furthermore, the revised spending plan includes provisions addressing priorities important to some Democrats, making it a more palatable compromise. The new funding deadline of January 30th also provides an opportunity to address remaining issues in subsequent spending bills.
Ultimately, a confluence of factors – the escalating consequences of the shutdown, strategic concessions within the spending plan, and the promise of future negotiations – has altered the political landscape, bringing the Senate to this critical juncture.
